The Return of Sherlock Holmes — Deducibility Analysis

Basic Information

Overall Ratings (Collection as a Whole)

Metric Rating Notes
Deducibility ⭐⭐⭐ Average convergence point approximately 62% — wide variation across stories, from disguise puzzles that can be detected very early to cipher-breaking challenges
Fog Rating ⭐⭐⭐ Doyle excels at using the appearance of "impossible crimes" to create confusion, but the false clues are not laid as precisely as Christie's

This article provides detailed analysis of three stories most representative of the collection's detective structure: - The Adventure of the Empty House - The Adventure of the Norwood Builder - The Adventure of the Dancing Men

Synopsis (Collection Overview)

In the spring of 1894, Holmes returns to London, "resurrected" from the Reichenbach Falls. For three years he had been living abroad, hiding in Tibet, Persia, and France, waiting for the right moment to eliminate the remnants of Moriarty's organization. This collection records thirteen cases following his return — from setting a trap in the empty house to re-enter the game, to the cipher tragedy of the dancing men, to the Norwood reversal where the "victim" proves to be the mastermind. Each story demonstrates Doyle's masterful command of the detective fiction genre.

Story One: The Adventure of the Empty House

Basic Information

Overall Ratings

Metric Rating Notes
Deducibility ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Average convergence point approximately 72% — the key clues for both the killer's identity and the method do not come together until the latter portion of the story
Fog Rating ⭐⭐⭐ The "locked-room murder" appearance is the greatest source of fog; Colonel Moran appears early but his identity remains unclear

Truth Breakdown

Truth One: The Murder Method (howdunit) - Clue convergence point: approximately 72% - Answer: Colonel Moran shot Adair from the empty house across the street (Camden House) using a German-made silent air gun (Von Herder air-gun) through the open window. Adair had locked his own door from the inside because he was calculating the poker winnings he owed to others and did not wish to be disturbed — this was not done by the killer.

Key Clues

# Clue Position (%) Notes
1 The bullet had "mushroomed out" — a soft-nosed expanding bullet causing instant death ~8% This type of bullet fired at high velocity through a window from outside could produce this wound, suggesting the shot was not fired at close range
2 No signs of climbing on the flower bed or ground, yet the window was on the second floor ~10% Rules out entry through the window, but does not rule out shooting from the opposite side
3 Holmes recalls having ordered the shutters closed "as a precaution against air guns," implying he already knew Moriarty's network possessed such a weapon ~62% Key clue: Points to the existence of the air gun and connects it to Moriarty's organization
4 Colonel Moran appears, holding a strange-shaped air gun, and fires at Holmes's wax effigy across the street ~78% The method is fully confirmed — silent, highly accurate, capable of shooting through windows
5 The bullet is "a soft revolver bullet fired from an air gun" — Holmes's final confirmation ~85% The truth is completely closed: the bullet type matches the Park Lane case perfectly

Supporting Clues

# Clue Position (%) Notes
1 Directly across from Park Lane there was an empty house, its position perfectly matching the angle of the murder ~12% The attacker's hiding place was already there, only waiting to be noticed
2 Adair's door was locked from the inside, but on the table were names and calculated amounts ~9% He was tallying up card game debts and locked the door so as not to be disturbed — a rational explanation for the locked room
3 Park Lane is a busy street with a cab stand, yet no one heard a gunshot ~10% A "silent weapon" is the only answer that can account for this

Red Herrings

# Clue Position (%) Misdirection Direction
1 No signs of disturbance on the flower bed or grass ~10% Leads readers to believe no one could have entered from outside, overlooking the possibility of long-range shooting that requires no entry
2 The windowsill was "obviously unclimbable" ~11% Guides readers toward thinking "locked-room murder," concealing the possibility of shooting from across the street

Truth Two: The Killer's Identity (whodunit) - Clue convergence point: approximately 65% - Answer: Colonel Sebastian Moran, former officer in the British Indian Army, the Empire's finest marksman, and Moriarty's right-hand man.

Key Clues

# Clue Position (%) Notes
1 One of Adair's card-playing companions on the night of the murder was Colonel Moran ~14% The killer had direct contact with the victim — this is the earliest identity clue, but the name is buried in a list of names
2 Holmes says: "Apart from Moriarty himself, London still has one last dangerous enemy remaining" ~58% Clearly points toward a surviving member of Moriarty's organization, heavily overlapping with the Adair case killer
3 Holmes confirms: it was one of Moriarty's men who threw rocks at him from the top of the cliff at Reichenbach ~60% Confirms the caliber of this dangerous enemy — someone who had been close to him, possessing long-range shooting skills
4 Colonel Moran personally enters the empty house and fires at the wax figure ~76% The killer's identity is fully revealed

Supporting Clues

# Clue Position (%) Notes
1 In the weeks before the murder, Adair had partnered with Moran to win a large sum at cards ~15% Implies a special relationship between the two, though the motive for murder is not yet apparent
2 Holmes's criminal index — the "M" pages are filled with dangerous criminals ~85% Colonel Moran's complete file, corroborating the killer's background and capabilities

Red Herrings

# Clue Position (%) Misdirection Direction
1 Adair's "unknown enemy" — the coroner's jury returned a verdict of "murder by person or persons unknown" ~9% Leads readers to accept the premise that "the killer's identity is completely mysterious," overlooking the card-playing companion as a suspect

Truth Three: The Motive for Murder (whydunit) - Clue convergence point: approximately 90% - Answer: Adair had discovered Moran cheating at cards and threatened to expose him. Moran made his living by cheating at gambling; being expelled from clubs would cut off his income, so he killed to silence him.

Key Clues

# Clue Position (%) Notes
1 Before his death, Adair had been calculating card game wins and losses; on the table was a list of debts owed by each card partner ~9% What he was doing when he died was exactly accounting for the improper gains from cheating — but why this matters as a motive is only revealed at the very end
2 Adair and Moran had "won" £420 together as partners ~15% Hints at possible collusion in cheating, but the direction is unclear at this point
3 Holmes deduces: Adair had likely threatened to expose Moran, but to spare the old man's face asked only that he withdraw quietly ~92% The motive is not fully reconstructed by Holmes until nearly the end of the story

Reasoning Path Reconstruction

Howdunit path: A careful reader, upon reaching "no signs of climbing yet the room cannot have been locked from outside" (~10%), should recognize that the only possibility is long-range shooting. Combined with "the street was noisy yet no one heard a gunshot" (~10%), a "silent weapon" is almost the only explanation — provided one knows that silent air guns exist. Holmes's mention at 62% of the previous threat from an air gun is the key node where readers can confirm this deduction.

Whodunit path: Colonel Moran appears at 14% as a card-playing companion, but is buried in a list of names, and since he was at his club when the murder occurred, he does not seem like a suspect at first. What truly points to him is that he combines two qualities: "the ability to shoot accurately at long range" and "a financial dispute with the victim." The former is not clearly indicated until 62% (the air gun threat), and the latter is not fully revealed until 90% (the cheating motive).

Obstacle for readers: Doyle deliberately makes the solution to "how the murder was done" depend on a piece of specialized knowledge — the silent high-pressure air gun manufactured by Von Herder, mentioned in just one sentence in the preceding story "The Final Problem." Readers who have not read that story will find it nearly impossible to arrive at the air gun answer on their own.

Additional Notes

Holmes's Resurrection and Its Genre Significance

This story contains the most famous "character resurrection" scene in the history of series fiction: both the reader and Watson experience the surprise simultaneously. Doyle uses the disguise of an old bookseller to turn the resurrection itself into a small mystery. This design means the answer to "is Holmes still alive" is not revealed on the first page, but is conveyed through a complete and dramatic revelation.

The Ingenuity of the "Empty House" as a Trap

When Moran enters the empty house, he believes himself to be the hunter and the wax figure in the window across the street to be his prey. Doyle brilliantly reverses the roles of hunter and prey — Holmes uses exactly the same technique Moran used when tiger hunting: "tying a goat to a tree to lure the tiger." This symmetrical design gives the story a remarkably complete structure.

Story Two: The Adventure of the Norwood Builder

Basic Information

Overall Ratings

Metric Rating Notes
Deducibility ⭐⭐⭐ Average convergence point approximately 55% — Holmes's suspicion is subtly telegraphed throughout, and careful readers can guess fairly early that Oldacre is still alive
Fog Rating ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Doyle layers on false evidence through "charred remains," "bloodstains," and "a thumbprint," pushing readers further in the wrong direction with each new "physical clue" added

Truth Breakdown

Truth One: Is Oldacre Really Dead? (The Core Solution) - Clue convergence point: approximately 55% - Answer: Oldacre is not dead at all. He had previously built a hiding room, burned old clothing and animal remains to fake his death, and was concealed in a secret cavity at the end of his own hallway, orchestrating a scheme to frame McFarlane.

Key Clues

# Clue Position (%) Notes
1 The will was written on a train, with handwriting varying by motion (good lettering at stations, poor in motion, worst over switch points) ~20% Holmes points out: "A man who does not intend for a will to take effect might write it in such a careless way" — suggesting the will is a trap
2 Bloodstains were very slight, only "smears and faint discoloration" — inconsistent with a scene of such violent murder ~46% The amount of blood is abnormally small; it is impossible for this little to remain if someone had been beaten to death with a stick
3 Documents in the safe are missing — certain contracts remained unaccounted for even after Oldacre's "murder" ~47% If he is dead, who took the documents? Only he himself could have taken them
4 The hallway was six feet shorter than the corresponding space below ~80% Decisive clue: The builder had constructed a secret hiding room in his own house
5 Oldacre bursts out of the hidden door — startled by the smoke and forced to emerge ~85% Confirms he had been in the house all along

Supporting Clues

# Clue Position (%) Notes
1 The housekeeper's behavior is suspicious, her words evasive, her eyes carrying a "dark awareness" ~50% She is an accomplice and has known all along where her employer is
2 Oldacre had previously drawn large checks to "Mr. Cornelius" ~45% This is his alias, a second identity maintained for financial fraud
3 What was found in the charred woodpile were only "trouser buttons" bearing the mark of Oldacre's tailor ~38% Only buttons, no bones — animal remains combined with old coat buttons to fabricate the false charred body
4 McFarlane has a gentle character with no psychological profile for premeditated crime ~5% When Holmes first meets him he judges: "This case is too obvious — obvious enough to make me suspicious"

Red Herrings

# Clue Position (%) Misdirection Direction
1 Bloodstains in the room and on the walking stick ~15% Leads readers (and the police) to believe actual violence had taken place and Oldacre was beaten to death
2 Charred remains in the woodpile ~20% The central false clue — Doyle uses "burned remains" to reinforce the impression that "Oldacre is dead"
3 McFarlane's thumbprint (in blood) appears on the wall of the hallway ~62% The most brilliant false clue: Oldacre used a thumbprint mold from a wax seal, dipped it in blood, and pressed it onto the wall — fabricating evidence of the suspect being at the crime scene
4 The will suddenly coming into effect gives McFarlane a motive for murder ~3% The entire starting point is false — the will is bait

Truth Two: Oldacre's Full Motive (whydunit) - Clue convergence point: approximately 88% - Answer: Oldacre has two purposes: (1) to defraud his creditors — transferring assets under the "Cornelius" name and then vanishing; (2) revenge — McFarlane's mother had once been his fiancée, then jilted him. On her wedding day he sent her a photograph slashed to pieces with a knife, nursing his grudge for decades. He finally seized this opportunity to send her only son to prison and perhaps the gallows.

Key Clues

# Clue Position (%) Notes
1 McFarlane's mother is filled with loathing for Oldacre, calling him "a malicious and crafty ape" ~42% Reveals Oldacre is no stranger; there is a long-standing grievance between them
2 Oldacre had courted McFarlane's mother; after being rejected, he sent her a photograph slashed and defaced with a knife on her wedding day ~43% Key motive clue: This hatred from years past is the root of the entire conspiracy
3 Holmes asks: "After going to Blackheath (McFarlane's home), then to Norwood (the crime scene)" ~24% He knew before everyone else that "the source is on the family relationship side"

Reasoning Path Reconstruction

Upon reaching 20% (the will carelessly written on a train), careful readers should sense something strange: a person who has meticulously designed an entire scheme — why would he hastily draft a will on a train? Holmes's words "he does not intend for this will to take effect" are the earliest confirmation signal.

By 46% (minimal bloodstains, missing documents), two clues simultaneously point toward "Oldacre is not dead." But the most powerful confirmation must wait until 80%: the discrepancy in hallway length confirms the existence of the hidden room.

The Key Trap: Doyle introduces the false thumbprint when the story is about halfway through — this is the most ingenious moment in the whole story. Just as readers are beginning to suspect Oldacre is still alive, they receive the shock of "physical evidence becoming even more conclusive." Even Holmes first says "this is final" — and only then, when no one is watching, smiles quietly. He knows the thumbprint is false, because he had already confirmed that wall was clean the day before.

The Greatest Challenge for Readers: To realize that "the victim himself fabricated all the physical evidence" requires readers not only to maintain suspicion about the death scene but also to understand that "a builder can create forgeries in his own house more easily than any outsider." Doyle buried a very important supporting clue: what was found in the charred remains was only a trouser button, not human bone.

Additional Notes

The "Too Obvious" Reversal

Through Holmes, Doyle articulates a core technique of detective writing: "A case that is too obvious is itself suspicious." (It strikes me as being just a trifle too obvious.) This line is simultaneously a critique of Lestrade and a meta-commentary on the entire story. Doyle deliberately leads readers to first agree with "the obvious answer," then uses the false thumbprint clue to give readers a false sense of "confirmation," and only then reverses everything.

Oldacre's "Lack of Artistic Sense"

Holmes's concluding remark is brilliant: "He had not that supreme gift of the artist — the knowledge of when to stop. He wished to improve that which was already perfect — and thus ruined everything." These words directly identify the solution to the puzzle: the criminal's greed left a fatal flaw. This is Doyle's self-reflective commentary on detective fiction design.

Story Three: The Adventure of the Dancing Men

Basic Information

Overall Ratings

Metric Rating Notes
Deducibility ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Average convergence point approximately 78% — the cipher cannot be broken independently (text versions omit the original illustrations), and the killer's motive is not fully revealed until late in the story
Fog Rating ⭐⭐⭐ The greatest source of fog is the initial impression of a "sealed room with only the couple inside," suggesting Elsie may be guilty; another source of fog is the cipher itself appearing childishly harmless

Truth Breakdown

Truth One: What Are the Dancing Men? (The Nature of the Cipher) - Clue convergence point: approximately 15% (concept), approximately 80% (complete decryption) - Answer: Each dancing figure represents a letter of the English alphabet; a figure carrying a flag indicates the end of a word. This cipher system was invented by Old Patrick (Elsie's father) for use by members of a Chicago criminal gang.

Key Clues

# Clue Position (%) Notes
1 Elsie "fell into a dead faint" upon seeing the symbols ~12% This is not the reaction of someone seeing a child's drawing — confirms the symbols have specific meaning to her
2 The first set of symbols: among 15 figures, 4 are identical (i.e., the letter E) ~15% Holmes notices the frequency — this is the key breakthrough for a substitution cipher
3 Five-letter words, flag markers to separate words, highest-frequency symbol = E ~75% The core of Holmes's decoding steps — first confirm E, then use a name (ELSIE) to work out the rest
4 "NEVER" (Elsie's only reply) provides N, V, R ~76% Decryption accelerates — by replying using the other party's system, Elsie effectively hands Holmes the key
5 The final message: ELSIE PREPARE TO MEET THY GOD ~80% Escalation from "persuasion" to "threat" — the final warning that a crime is imminent

Supporting Clues

# Clue Position (%) Notes
1 Before her marriage, Elsie frankly acknowledged having "an unpleasant past," asking her husband not to inquire further ~18% Her secret is crucial background
2 Elsie had tried to stop her husband from pursuing the stranger who drew the figures ~36% She knows this person and does not want her husband to have contact with him
3 Telegram reply: "Abe Slaney is the most dangerous crook in Chicago" ~78% Confirms the sender's identity and confirms the severity of the situation

Red Herrings

# Clue Position (%) Misdirection Direction
1 The first impression that "these are just children's drawings" ~3% Leads readers and Cubitt alike to underestimate the seriousness of the threat
2 At the crime scene, all doors and windows were locked from the inside — "no third party could possibly be present" ~57% Testimony from the maid and cook leads one to believe only the couple was involved — suggesting Elsie killed her husband

Truth Two: What Actually Happened at the Scene (howdunit) - Clue convergence point: approximately 72% - Answer: All three parties were at the scene. Slaney was outside the window; Elsie had money and was trying to pay him off to leave. Cubitt burst in holding a revolver. Cubitt fired first and missed; Slaney almost simultaneously returned fire from outside the window, and Cubitt was fatally shot. After closing the window, Elsie shot herself (not fatally). The entire incident was not a murder at all, but a shootout that Cubitt himself initiated.

Key Clues

# Clue Position (%) Notes
1 There was a bullet hole from a third bullet in the window frame ~66% The math of "two guns, two wounded" doesn't work — there must have been a third party firing
2 Smoke instantly spread to the upstairs corridor — indicating the window was open at the time of the incident ~63% If the window had been locked throughout, the smoke would not have spread so quickly
3 In the handbag on Elsie's table was £1,000 ~64% The "ransom" she had prepared, intended to buy Slaney's silence
4 Large male footprints on the flower bed, and an ejected shell casing ~70% Physical evidence that Slaney fired from outside the window
5 Slaney's own testimony: "It was he that fired first. I had no wish to hurt him" ~92% Complete reconstruction of the event

Supporting Clues

# Clue Position (%) Notes
1 No powder marks on Cubitt's hand or dressing gown, yet the gun was his and had fired one shot ~62% Firing from a greater distance does not necessarily leave obvious powder marks
2 Only one gun was found, yet two people were wounded and the window frame had a bullet hole ~61% The logic of "only one gun": there must have been another weapon outside the scene

Red Herrings

# Clue Position (%) Misdirection Direction
1 "She was found beside her husband, shot, with the bedroom door and windows locked from the inside" ~55% The sealed scene makes Elsie the prime suspect — readers and police alike suspect she killed her husband and then failed to kill herself
2 "The village gossip had it that she had shot him and then herself" ~56% Rural rumor reinforces the wrong direction

Reasoning Path Reconstruction

Cipher path: Readers have almost no chance of breaking the cipher independently, because the text only describes abstract "dancing figures" — it is the original illustrations that provide the letter shapes. Doyle was aware of this — the puzzle interest of this story mainly comes from "following Holmes as he applies frequency analysis," rather than letting readers decode it themselves. This is a "demonstration-type" rather than a "competitive-type" puzzle.

Scene reconstruction path: The bullet hole from the third bullet (~66%) is the most critical clue in this story that readers can discover for themselves. If careful readers notice "only two wounded but three bullets fired," they should be able to deduce that three people were at the scene. Combined with the "smoke" and "footprints," the basic picture of Slaney's position outside the window can be reconstructed.

The Greatest Cognitive Obstacle: In the latter half of the story, Doyle exploits readers' intuitive response to a "sealed scene" — everyone (including the police and readers) tends to assume that two wounded people in a sealed space means one of them must have shot the other. The discovery of the third bullet completely overturns this premise. This is the most precise strike in the story's detective design.

Additional Notes

A Detective Story That Ends in Tragedy

"The Adventure of the Dancing Men" holds a unique position in Conan Doyle's work: it is one of the rare stories where the detective being "too slow" means the case cannot be prevented. Cubitt dies, Elsie barely survives, and Holmes's delay was due to his telegram reply arriving two days late. Doyle allows the detective hero to taste failure, yet recovers a measure of justice through precise after-the-fact reconstruction and the capture of the criminal.

The Historical Significance of the Cipher Puzzle

The dancing men cipher is one of the most famous substitution ciphers in the history of detective fiction, with greater visual impact than the cipher Poe used in "The Gold-Bug" (1843). The frequency analysis method Doyle demonstrates here — highest-frequency letter = E, guessing "NEVER" from a short word, completing other letters using the name "ELSIE" — is the foundational logic of cryptanalysis: accurate, complete, and instructive.

The Human Depth of Slaney

Unlike the typical "cartoon villain," Doyle gives this Chicago criminal genuine emotional depth. He truly loves Elsie; upon learning she is wounded, he "gave a harsh cry of grief," and says "if Elsie dies, I care nothing what becomes of me." His reaction to being offered £1,000 to go away — "it made me mad" — reveals that he is not simply a utilitarian villain but a person with genuine feelings. This character has edges and dimensions, and is more than a functional instrument of evil.

Analysis of the Collection's Overall Detective Design

Comparison of the Three Representative Stories

Empty House Norwood Builder Dancing Men
Core puzzle type Impossible murder + weapon puzzle Victim alive + fabricated evidence Cipher + sealed scene
Deducibility ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (72%) ⭐⭐⭐ (55%) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (78%)
Fog Rating ⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐
Likelihood readers can solve independently Low (requires specialized knowledge) Medium (key clues are observable) Low (cipher requires illustrations)
Ending tone Triumphant Comic reversal Tragic justice

Doyle's Narrative Strategy in The Return of Sherlock Holmes

I. "Demonstration-type" vs. "Competitive-type" Detective Reasoning

All three stories (and the collection as a whole) lean toward the "demonstration type" — Doyle does not intend for readers to beat Holmes, but rather for readers to experience the pleasure of intellectual observation. Clues frequently require specialized knowledge (the esoteric knowledge about air guns, architectural measurement, cryptanalysis), making it difficult for ordinary readers to independently arrive at the answer even with careful reading. This is strikingly different from Christie's later design principle of "giving readers a fair chance."

II. Physical Precision

Doyle received medical training and had a near-obsessive precision with details: the mushrooming of bullets, the rate of smoke dispersal, the measurement discrepancy in a hallway. These details are not decoration but the very foundation of the reasoning itself. Holmes's "therefore" always has a clear physical or logical basis.

III. Revenge as the Dominant Motive

Two of the three stories (Empty House, Norwood Builder) use "long-accumulated personal grievances" as the criminal motive. Doyle seems particularly drawn to the psychological arc of "long-suppressed hatred finally erupting" — this resonates with the social background of his Victorian era (outwardly repressed, inwardly fierce emotions).

IV. Holmes as Omniscient Designer

The collection's most distinctive narrative feature is that Holmes almost always sees the truth before the reader, and all his "investigative actions" are actually gathering physical evidence or setting traps from a position of already knowing the answer. He sets the wax figure to lure Moran, uses smoke to flush out Oldacre, uses the dancing men cipher to ensnare Slaney — all three endings are theatrical productions that Holmes has actively designed, not passive discoveries of truth. This gives these stories tremendous dramatic power, but also means they fall slightly short of the ideal of "letting detective and reader grope toward the truth together" in terms of pure detective fiction purity.

← Back to home