The Tremendous Event — Deducibility Analysis

Basic Information

Deducibility Rating

Metric Stars Notes
Deducibility ⭐⭐⭐ Average convergence point 53% — the three mystery threads become deducible at approximately 41%, 55%, and 64% respectively
Fog Rating ⭐⭐⭐ The core red herring is cleverly designed (same-name cousins create confusion), yet the author also gives readers enough counter-clues; Dolores's motive has foreshadowing but is deliberately concealed

Synopsis

In 1922, the English Channel suddenly rises due to an ancient geological fault (which Leblanc calls the "Rouen Fault"), forming a new landmass connecting Dieppe in France to Hastings in England — the "Norman Isthmus." This is a world-historic event that reshapes European political geography.

French youth Simon Dubosc is courting Isabel Bakefield, daughter of an English nobleman, but her father refuses him with the condition: "Achieve something heroic first, then we'll talk marriage." On the very night of the earthquake, Simon walks across the newly emerged land to England on foot, becoming "the first person to cross the Channel on foot."

Yet along this journey, a series of murders unfolds: - Indian actor Badiarinos is stabbed in the back on the new land, with rubber-soled shoe prints and a Napoleonic gold coin left at the scene - Isabel's secret letter to Simon is intercepted; the messenger (a maid) hands it to a "Mr. Rolleston" who claims to be Simon's envoy - The interceptor attempts to assassinate Simon, but stabs the wrong room — room 44 instead of 43 — wounding an innocent guest

Suspicion falls on Simon's English friend Edward Rolleston — a heavy drinker with erratic behavior. But Simon's gut tells him his old friend is not the killer.

The truth: the man is not Edward, but his cousin Wilfred Rolleston — someone of similar appearance who has descended into alcoholic madness and criminality. Wilfred covets Isabel, has recruited a gang of outlaws, kidnapped Lord Bakefield and his daughter, and established himself as a warlord aboard a wrecked ship on the new land, commanding a legion of desperados with a fountain of gold.

Simon teams up with the mixed-blood Indian actor Antonio (Lynx-Eye) to mount a rescue; along the way he becomes entangled with the mysterious Mexican actress Dolores, who deliberately misleads the tracking route because she has fallen in love with Simon. Ultimately Simon repairs a crashed aircraft, flies to the battleground, and with Antonio's help rescues Isabel and prevents a clash between French and British troops, becoming "High Commissioner of the New Territory."

Truth Breakdown

Truth One: The Killer's Identity — Wilfred Rolleston, Not Edward Rolleston (whodunit)

Key Clues

# Clue Location (chapter/percentage) Notes
1 Murder scene on new land: patterned rubber-soled shoe prints (bathing-shoes or tennis-shoes with patterned rubber soles), indicating premeditated crime Part 1 Ch. 6 / ~31% The same footprints reappear near the wreck of the Queen Mary, confirming the same individual
2 A Napoleonic gold coin (1807 edition) found at the murder scene; the "Rolleston" who intercepted the letter paid the maid a tip in the identical coin from the same year Part 1 Ch. 7 / ~41% Links the new-land murder with the hotel-corridor stabbing, confirming a single perpetrator
3 Antonio describes the corridor attacker: "extremely tall, capable of bending to thrust downward from the shoulder; gaunt… slightly hunched… extremely pale" Part 1 Ch. 7 / ~42% This description matches Edward Rolleston word for word (a deliberate look-alike misdirection) — yet it also describes Wilfred equally well
4 The wounded Edward Rolleston is found beside the Queen Mary wreck; Antonio formally confirms: "This man is not the one I saw in the hotel corridor" Part 2 Ch. 1 / ~55% Final key clue: confirms Edward's innocence; the killer is someone else
5 Edward himself says: "I have a cousin, Wilfred Rolleston — a complete scoundrel, subject to fits of madness… he resembles me in appearance" Part 2 Ch. 1 / ~55% Explains the root of the entire identity puzzle

Supporting Clues

# Clue Location (chapter/percentage) Notes
1 Simon repeatedly mentions that Edward "drinks heavily, frequents bars, lives by his wits," while also insisting "he bears genuine friendship toward me" Part 1 Ch. 1 / ~5% Readers initially link Edward's vices to criminal suspicion, but Simon's trust is itself a counter-signal
2 The bartender reports that "Rolleston was just here drinking whisky and recruited six outlaws to head to the Queen Mary" Part 1 Ch. 7 / ~44% Reinforces "Rolleston = killer," but this Rolleston is Wilfred, not Edward
3 Even when all appearances point to Edward, Simon repeatedly insists "Rolleston could never do such a thing" Part 1 Ch. 7–8 / ~42–45% Simon's intuition is itself a covert clue, signaling readers not to accept the surface answer

Red Herrings

# Clue Location (chapter/percentage) Misdirection
1 Antonio describes the corridor attacker as "tall, gaunt, hunched, extremely pale" — this is Edward Rolleston's physical appearance Part 1 Ch. 7 / ~42% Leads readers (and Simon) to conclude the killer is Edward, since this description perfectly matches his appearance in Chapter 1
2 The bartender says "Rolleston is a regular, always coming in for whisky" — readers know Edward drinks whisky Part 1 Ch. 7 / ~44% Overlaps Edward's known habits with Wilfred's actual movements, reinforcing the wrong conclusion
3 The maid says she "has seen this man at Lord Bakefield's home many times" — leading readers to assume the killer is a household regular, i.e., Edward Part 1 Ch. 7 / ~43% Wilfred was also a visitor at the Bakefields' (he had proposed to Isabel); readers cannot easily distinguish the two

Truth Two: How the Letter Was Intercepted and How Simon Was Mistakenly Stabbed (howdunit)

Key Clues

# Clue Location (chapter/percentage) Notes
1 When Simon enters the hotel corridor, he finds someone stabbed — and the wounded person is at room 44, not room 43 Part 1 Ch. 7 / ~40% Shows the attacker misidentified the room number
2 Antonio picks up envelope fragments bearing Lord Bakefield's seal in wax Part 1 Ch. 7 / ~41% Confirms the letter existed and was intercepted
3 The maid's testimony: someone intercepted her at the stairway, said "Simon is sleeping, let me deliver it for you," and paid her a louis gold coin as a tip Part 1 Ch. 7 / ~41% Clearly reconstructs the interception; the identical coin becomes ironclad evidence linking the killer
4 Simon confirms he lives in room 43, not room 44 Part 1 Ch. 7 / ~40% This detail explains why the killer failed to stab Simon

Supporting Clues

# Clue Location (chapter/percentage) Notes
1 Isabel's letter mentions losing a pearl-studded miniature portrait near the Queen Mary wreck and hopes Simon will retrieve it Part 1 Ch. 7 / ~42% Explains why Wilfred intercepted the letter — he learned of the miniature portrait (financial motive) and that Simon is Isabel's suitor (jealousy motive)
2 The miniature portrait is Isabel's precious heirloom (left by her grandmother, set with fine pearls, of great value) Part 1 Ch. 2 / ~14% Establishes the financial motive

Red Herrings

# Clue Location (chapter/percentage) Misdirection
1 Simon never received the letter; his first assumption is that Isabel never wrote Part 1 Ch. 7 / ~40% Readers may skip the letter-interception possibility along with Simon

Truth Three: Dolores's Secret — Misdirection for Love (whydunit)

Key Clues

# Clue Location (chapter/percentage) Notes
1 Simon finds Rolleston's footprints by the riverbank — and among them are Dolores's sandal prints, appearing after Rolleston's — meaning she had come here on her own beforehand Part 2 Ch. 2 / ~63% Physical evidence: her footprints overlay the enemy's, proving she had scouted this location earlier
2 Simon confronts her directly: "You knew the truth! You saw their footprints — yet you led me in the wrong direction!" Dolores bows her head in silence, not denying it Part 2 Ch. 2 / ~64% Behavioral confirmation: her silence is admission
3 Dolores confesses aloud: "I thought of nothing else… only of you and me. From the first moment we met, I was swept up by a feeling unlike anything I had ever known…" Part 2 Ch. 2 / ~64% Self-confession: explains the motive behind all her actions

Supporting Clues

# Clue Location (chapter/percentage) Notes
1 Dolores repeatedly entered Simon's hotel room uninvited (once by day, once at night) — with the excuse "I'm uneasy; I must come and protect you" Part 1 Ch. 8 / ~46% Her intense focus on Simon far exceeds what gratitude for a rescue would explain; it is already a sign of obsession
2 Antonio warns Simon: "Be wary of Dolores — I have seen many men lose their minds over her" Part 1 Ch. 8 / ~47% The author uses Antonio's voice to hint that Dolores harbors unusual feelings for Simon
3 Dolores insists on traveling alone with Simon, defying Antonio's explicit prohibition — she secretly swaps horses with another Indian to join the party Part 1 Ch. 8 / ~45% She goes to great lengths solely to be at Simon's side

Red Herrings

# Clue Location (chapter/percentage) Misdirection
1 Dolores explains her night visits as "worry for Simon's safety — a natural response of gratitude for saving her life" Part 1 Ch. 8 / ~46% Her explanation is superficially plausible; readers cannot easily suspect she has a hidden motive
2 She appears to actively assist in tracking — expertly reading footprints, making sharp directional judgments — giving the impression of a "wholehearted partner" Part 2 Ch. 1–2 / ~54–62% Makes readers assume she has been helping with the rescue all along, rather than secretly stalling

Reasoning Path Reconstruction

First Path: Unmasking the True "Rolleston"

Around the 41% mark (Antonio reveals the coin link; the killer's description is complete), readers hold two mutually contradictory pieces of information: 1. The killer is "Rolleston" (physical evidence: coins, rubber soles) 2. Simon firmly believes Edward Rolleston is innocent (character evidence: his genuine friendship with Simon)

These two pieces of information constitute a critical reasoning fork: if Simon's judgment is correct, there must be another "Rolleston." A careful reader who notices that Antonio's description of the killer (tall, pale, hunched) matches Edward's appearance should be able to infer: someone so physically similar in England is almost certainly a close relative.

At the 55% mark (the wounded Edward is found near the wreck; Antonio confirms "he is not that man"), the clues fully converge, and cousin Wilfred's identity becomes definitively deducible.

Second Path: The Letter Interception Mystery

The gold coin is the most critical physical link. When Antonio displays the tip coin received by the maid (Napoleonic 1807 edition) and it proves identical to the coin Simon found at the murder scene, readers around the 41% mark can deduce:

The murderer = the person who intercepted the letter = the person who stabbed the wrong room's occupant

The motive for intercepting the letter (learning of the miniature portrait + learning that Simon is a rival in love) also becomes clear simultaneously.

Third Path: Dolores's Betrayal

This is the hardest path to crack, because the author deliberately wraps her emotional foreshadowing in the guise of "devotion and protection." The key node is her footprints — Simon deduces from physical evidence that she "had visited Rolleston's campsite alone without telling him." This reasoning only becomes actionable around the 63% mark, because readers must remember her earlier statement "this morning I already scouted the surrounding terrain" (beginning of Part 2 Ch. 2), then match it against the later footprint discovery to piece together the fact that she knew and said nothing.

Additional Notes

This Is Not a Pure Detective Novel — It Is an Adventure Epic Clad in Mystery

In genre terms, The Tremendous Event is closer to an Edwardian adventure novel than a classical mystery. Leblanc embeds mystery elements (murder, identity misdirection, conspiracy) within the sweeping backdrop of a geological catastrophe, producing a distinctive reading experience: readers must simultaneously contend with "who is the killer" and "the entire English Channel is tearing itself apart."

This design keeps the deductive pressure of the mystery relatively low — because readers' attention is diverted by spectacular wonders (the new land, the golden fountain, the wrecked-ship kingdom) — but it also means the revelation of the mystery carries greater emotional impact.

Identity Substitution: The Double-Rolleston Design

Leblanc is famous in the Arsène Lupin series for "perfect disguise"; in this novel he uses an even more elegant technique — no disguise is needed at all. Wilfred and Edward's physical resemblance is natural, causing every witness (Antonio, the maid) to describe Edward, when in fact they are describing someone else entirely. This "congenital misdirection" is more convincing than any elaborate makeup, because the witnesses' descriptions are genuine — the subject is simply confused.

This technique would be widely used in detective literature afterward, but as a work from 1922 this novel deserves recognition for its foresight.

Dolores as a Character: Literary Significance Beyond the Mystery

Dolores is the most complex figure in the entire novel — more three-dimensional than the villain Wilfred. Her "betrayal" is in fact merely the blindness of love, and her ultimate choice to sacrifice her own interests, riding alone to seek help from the French army and thereby saving Simon and Isabel's lives, redeems what seemed like selfishness.

The final scene — Dolores riding away in silence, not even granting Simon a glance — is Leblanc at his most modern as a writer of women in the 1920s: she gave everything, but refused to become any man's appendage.

Comparison with Leblanc's Other Works

Arsène Lupin Series The Tremendous Event
Core mystery Fraud / theft / identity puzzle Murder / identity misdirection
Protagonist type Gentleman thief (morally ambiguous) Upright hero (purely good)
World Parisian high society Post-geological-disaster anarchic wasteland
Narrative ambition Elaborate plot mechanisms Geopolitical allegory + personal heroism

This novel is one of Leblanc's rare works featuring an entirely positive hero — Simon Dubosc has no moral ambiguity whatsoever. This lowers the mystery's surprise factor (there is no Lupin-style "who is the good guy, who is the bad guy" reversal), but the story's emotional center of gravity is correspondingly clearer.

Historical Context for Readers

Published in 1922, this novel appeared when the idea of a Channel Tunnel had been circulating for decades (finally built in 1994). Leblanc transformed the dream of "an artificial undersea tunnel" into "a land bridge created by natural geological catastrophe" — a clever science-fictional transposition. His descriptions of the new land (submarine sediment, ancient shell strata, primordial human traces) show that Leblanc had seriously researched geology, and his explanations of fault-line structure, spoken through the character of "Old Professor Sandstone," were remarkably accurate and accessible popular science for the 1920s.

The golden fountain (ancient shipwreck treasure blasted from the seabed by geothermal springs) is an element of swaggering romanticism that would be almost impossible in a serious detective novel — yet Leblanc makes it entirely believable, which is a feat in itself.

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